Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on China Costal Bulk Freight Indices

t-The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables on China Coastal Bulk Freight Indices. This paper applies VAR model, and uses impulse response analysis, variance decomposition method and Granger test to study the influence. The results of VAR model show that IFA and BOT have remarkable effect on CCBFIR, and CPI and VAI have no obvious influence. Granger test validate the conclusion, too. Impulse response analysis show that the coastal shipping returns have time lagged trait for macro-economic variables. Variance decomposition analysis show that contribution of CPI to CCBFIR is biggest all of the four variables, and the smallest is VAI.