Forecasting Model Based on Gray-Exponentially Smoothing and Applicated in Prediction of Safety Accidents

The analysis and forecasting of safety accident was important in the field of system security research. According to exponentially smoothing forecasting theory, the grey-exponentially smoothing forecasting model is built based on the grey forecasting of death rate (persons/10000) in safety accidents. This grey-exponentially smoothing forecasting model was applied on death rate (persons/10000) in safety accidents from 2006 to 2007. Through forecasting and analysis, the gray-exponentially smoothing model is proved to have a higher accuracy rate than GM(1,1) forecasting model.