Evaluation of the oil spill accident threaten degree based on the D-S evidence theory

In the event of marine oil spill, the first step is to evaluate the accident threaten degree, which has many impact factors including oil spill volume, spill location, oil features, ship status, weather and sea conditions, etc. Gaining these data accurately is not easy. It is a classification problem with uncertainty. In this paper the D-S evidence theory was adapted to evaluate the marine oil spill accident threaten degree. The discount ratio was used to differentiate the important degree of the indexes. The conflicting probability of the evidence was distributed to every proposition according to its average.