Title :
Probability distribution evaluation of distribution system reliability indices using a time sequential simulation technique
Author :
Wang, Peng ; Billinton, Roy ; Goel, L.
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Electr. & Electron. Eng., Nanyang Technol. Univ., Singapore
Abstract :
The time varying nature of system load and interruption cost in a distribution system affects both the mean values and the probability distributions of the system reliability indices. This paper presents a time sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique to evaluate the reliability indices and their probability distributions. The means and standard deviations of reliability indices for a test system are presented. The effects on the probability distributions of the time varying load model (TVLM) and time varying cost model (TVCM) are investigated
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; power distribution reliability; probability; distribution system reliability indices; interruption cost; means deviation; probability distribution evaluation; reliability indices evaluation; standard deviation; system load; time sequential Monte Carlo simulation; time sequential simulation; time varying cost model; time varying load model; time varying nature; Cost function; History; Load modeling; Power system modeling; Power system reliability; Predictive models; Probability distribution; Random variables; System testing; Time varying systems;
Conference_Titel :
Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2000 Canadian Conference on
Conference_Location :
Halifax, NS
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-5957-7
DOI :
10.1109/CCECE.2000.849567
