The Assessment Model about the Disaster-Bearing Capacity of City´s Lifeline after Dam-Break

Based on system value engineering and grey theory, an assessment model about the disaster-bearing capacity of city´s lifeline after dam-break is put forward. First, the connective reliability of the city´s lifeline after dam-break is put forward. Second, the relation between loss and function is established and the loss through function reliability is obtained. At last, the assessment model about disaster-bearing capacity of city´s lifeline after dam-break is finished through the balance between the loss and the connectivity reliability of the city´s lifeline and a numerical example is given to show its application. This model overcomes some deficiencies of traditional assessment method, such as lack of correlation analysis and causal analysis of the factors and loss. It can be used for making safety and reliability evaluation for complex systems.