Using GIS to analyze and forecast the Chinese Crime rate

The change of Crime rates is closely related to the macro-economic development since the China´s reform and opening up, the crime rate is predicted from the econometrics view in the article. The change of crime rate is a nonlinear time series. According to the complexity and non-linearity of change in crime rate, the Markov chain, that is the important forecast model of GIS, is used to study the crime rate. In which the group are divided by the sample mean - standard variance, the transition probability matrix are established by the transition probabilities of the various states, and the “Markov property” is verified by seeking the marginal probability. It is shown that they are consistent between the actual change and the forecasting change of the Markov chain model in the results.