Title :
The Forecasting of 3G Market in China Based on a Multi-Generation Model
Author :
Zhang, Aihua ; Li, Huali ; Peng, Ruohong
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Econ. & Manage., Beijing Univ. of Posts & Telecommun., Beijing, China
Abstract :
Chinese 3G market has been officially launched at the end of 2008. In order to make strategies of timely merchandise design, system capacity planning, distribution channels planning, and introduce of propel fee for 3G market, it is very important to estimate the growing paths of the 3G and 2G market and then to forecast the trend. Taking the interact effect between 2G and 3G into account, the paper, reveals the growth pattern of 3G in China based on the NB model (which utilizing the concepts of the ldquotechnical substitutionrdquo). We solve the problem that there is no historical data of 3G in China. And the empirical study result proves that the model fit very well with the actual data, which shows the predict value is quite credible.
Keywords :
3G mobile communication; marketing; telecommunication network planning; 2G market; Chinese 3G market forecasting; distribution channel planning; merchandise design; multigeneration model; system capacity planning; Capacity planning; Economic forecasting; Merchandise; Niobium; Path planning; Predictive models; Propulsion; Strategic planning; Technological innovation; Telecommunications;
Conference_Titel :
Management and Service Science, 2009. MASS '09. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Wuhan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4638-4
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4639-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICMSS.2009.5303132
