Title :
Can the futures market reveal the risk of inflation?
Author_Institution :
The Institute of Economic Studies, Yunnan University of Economics and finance, Kunming, China
Abstract :
The dynamic relationship between the commodity futures index and CPI in both china and USA is empirical studied in this paper, by using Granger causality test and the ARDL bound test. The results showed that: CRB commodity futures index can guide the CPI of USA, which can be an early warning indicator of inflation; while the Nanhua Futures Index (NFI) can not yet play a guiding role in Chinese CPI movements.
Keywords :
Banking; Economic indicators; Electronic countermeasures; Finance; Indexes; USA Councils; ARDL bound test; inflation; the futures market;
Conference_Titel :
Information Science and Engineering (ICISE), 2010 2nd International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hangzhou, China
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-7616-9
DOI :
10.1109/ICISE.2010.5690516
