Prediction and analysis of the human errors in the aircraft cockpit

According to the analysis of the main influencing factors of human errors in the aircraft cockpit and the establishment of the system dynamics model, the prediction and evaluation of the human errors causes are realized. The study provides a kind of research method and scientific basis for solving the problems of human errors in the aircraft cockpit. The simulation results show that the system dynamics model built for human errors analysis of the aircraft cockpit can make a mid long term prediction of the prevention level for human errors, and the prediction error is less than 10% compared with the historical data. Taking the prediction data of 2011-2020 as reference, when the improving rates of human-machine interface, human-environment interface, human-human interface and individual factor can be doubled respectively, the growths of the human errors prevention levels are 3%, 0.3%, 1% and 4% in turn. If the current condition is maintained and in about 2020, the proportion of the accidents attribute to cockpit human errors within the accidents attribute to human factors in China civil aviation transport aircrafts will be reduced to 15%.