Title :
Grey-Stochastic Analysis on Complex Uncertainty for the Run Risk of Reservoir Dam
Author :
Hu, Dexiu ; Yang Jie ; Mi, Yanfang ; Ge, Zhengzheng ; Yang Jie
Author_Institution :
Inst. of Water Resources &. Electr., Xi´´an Univ. of Technol., Xi´´an, China
Abstract :
Aimed at the quantitative analysis for the run risk of dam, an evaluation method based on grey-stochastic risk analysis and its engineering application was put forward. According to the disposal of regarding the complicated uncertainty relationship in the run of dam as a grey-stochastic complex uncertainty, the analysis method of grey-stochastic risk probability was set up. By ascertaining the functional function, the grey-stochastic risk probability was transformed into commonly stochastic risk probability. Finally, the amended first-order second-moment method was utilized to calculate quantitatively the failure risk of reservoir dam and the risk value obtained falls in a grey space, which satisfactorily reflects the uncertainty of the run risk of dam.
Keywords :
grey systems; reservoirs; risk analysis; first-order second-moment method; functional function; grey-stochastic analysis; grey-stochastic complex uncertainty; grey-stochastic risk analysis; grey-stochastic risk probability; reservoir dam; run risk; uncertainty relationship; Density functional theory; Failure analysis; Hydroelectric power generation; Quantization; Reservoirs; Risk analysis; Risk management; Stochastic processes; Uncertainty; Water resources;
Conference_Titel :
Management and Service Science, 2009. MASS '09. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Wuhan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4638-4
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4639-1
DOI :
10.1109/ICMSS.2009.5303472
