Fast and accurate BER estimation methodology for I/O links based on extreme value theory

This paper introduces a novel approach towards the statistical analysis of modern high-speed I/O and similar communication links, which is capable of reliably to determine extremely low (∼10⁻¹² or lower) bit error rates (BER) by using techniques from extreme value theory (EVT). The new method requires only a small amount of voltage values at the received eye center, which can be generated by running circuit/system level simulations or measuring fabricated I/O circuits, to predict link BERs. Unlike conventional techniques, no simplifying assumptions on link noise and interference sources are required making this approach extremely portable to any communication system operating with very low BER. Our experimental results show that the BER estimates from the proposed methodology are on the same order of magnitude as traditional time domain, transient eye diagram simulations for links with BER of 10⁻⁶ and 10⁻⁵ operating at 9.6 and 10.1 Gbps respectively.