GIS-assisted and climate-based modeling of spatial pattern of the potential ecological environments in the western part of the Chinese Loess Plateau

Due to long-term and intensive human disturbances on the vulnerable ecological environments in the semiarid western part of the Chinese Loess Plateau, this area has been degraded into nearly desert-like condition. Yet, geological and even historic data indicate that the natural ecological environments should be much better than it appears. To restore the ecological environments, we need to know its potentials. This study takes advantages of geostatistical methods and geographic technologies to model the spatial distribution of energy balance (heat) and mass balance (water). The modeled spatial distribution patterns of the heat-water combinations are then used to model the spatial and temporal variations in heat-water associated climates. The associated climates are finally used to spatially model the vegetation patterns based on the verified Kira Indices method. The comparison between the modeled spatial distributions of the potential vegetations with the "real" vegetations observed in field and detected with TM remote sensing images in the areas with least human disturbances ensures our confident in using the Kira Indices method to assess the potential vegetations in the areas that have been severely disturbed by human activities