Fluctuation and cycle of pork retail price in China based on wavelet analysis

Prices of animal products are influenced by many factors including supply and demand, growth cycle, grain yield, circulation of animal products, agricultural policies, technical progress, and unexpected event or contingency shock (for example, epidemic situation and, natural disasters). In order to minimize the effect of contingency factors and understand variable characteristics of pork retail price in China deeply, the authors first used wavelet de-noising to discriminate the signal from noise, took a linear regression model, and rated the variation to study the periodicity of retail price of pork products between January 2000 and January 2009 in this paper. Based on this intuitional analysis, a strict numerical analysis using period-gram was applied on these samples. It was found that, pork retail price, which shows a rising trend, is affect significantly by contingency shocks or emergent events. Between January 2000 and January 2009, the fluctuation of pork retail price went though two complete and one un-complete cycle approximately. The average length of a cycle is 54.3 months in the period, which present as a short cycle. Moreover, the reasons for the fluctuant retail price of pork products were explained. In this paper, the wavelet analysis theory and methods were mainly used to develop a new approach for the research on fluctuation in prices of animal products in practice, which provides a scientific basis for planning animal production.