Simulation input updating using Bayesian techniques

Simulation built on assumption and approximation has been traditionally utilized to make predictions prior to construction. Although there are many benefits of simulation such as its capability of multiple experiments with various scenario assumptions, it may lead to erroneous predictions when simulation input data are not accurate. Long-term repetitive projects such as tunnel construction provide opportunities to fine-tune the simulation input parameters based on real project progress. Bayesian updating techniques represent a very effective approach to enhance the quality of the estimates based on the observed data. This paper outlines some benefits that can be achieved using Bayesian updating techniques. The major benefits of these techniques includes more accurate simulation outcome even at the early stage of the project.