DocumentCode
2178803
Title
The more plot: Displaying measures of risk & error from simulation output
Author
Nelson, Barry L.
Author_Institution
Dept. of Ind. Eng. & Manage. Sci., Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL, USA
fYear
2008
fDate
7-10 Dec. 2008
Firstpage
413
Lastpage
416
Abstract
The focus on mean (long-run average) performance as the primary output measure produced by simulation experiments diminishes the usefulness of simulation for characterizing risk. Confidence intervals on means are often misinterpreted as measures of future risk, when in fact they are measures of error. We introduce the measure of risk & error (MORE) plot as a way to display and make intuitive the concepts of risk and error and thus support sound experiment design and correct decision making.
Keywords
decision making; error statistics; risk analysis; simulation; statistical analysis; confidence interval; decision making; error measure; risk measure; simulation output; statistical analysis; Chemicals; Computational Intelligence Society; Decision making; Displays; Engineering management; Error correction; Histograms; Industrial engineering; Risk management; Statistics;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Simulation Conference, 2008. WSC 2008. Winter
Conference_Location
Austin, TX
Print_ISBN
978-1-4244-2707-9
Electronic_ISBN
978-1-4244-2708-6
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/WSC.2008.4736095
Filename
4736095
Link To Document