Title :
The more plot: Displaying measures of risk & error from simulation output
Author :
Nelson, Barry L.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Ind. Eng. & Manage. Sci., Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL, USA
Abstract :
The focus on mean (long-run average) performance as the primary output measure produced by simulation experiments diminishes the usefulness of simulation for characterizing risk. Confidence intervals on means are often misinterpreted as measures of future risk, when in fact they are measures of error. We introduce the measure of risk & error (MORE) plot as a way to display and make intuitive the concepts of risk and error and thus support sound experiment design and correct decision making.
Keywords :
decision making; error statistics; risk analysis; simulation; statistical analysis; confidence interval; decision making; error measure; risk measure; simulation output; statistical analysis; Chemicals; Computational Intelligence Society; Decision making; Displays; Engineering management; Error correction; Histograms; Industrial engineering; Risk management; Statistics;
Conference_Titel :
Simulation Conference, 2008. WSC 2008. Winter
Conference_Location :
Austin, TX
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2707-9
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2708-6
DOI :
10.1109/WSC.2008.4736095
