Study on Fixed-Mobile Substitution of Global Voice Market

This paper studies the historical data of 152 countries between 2003 and 2008 on the development of the fixed telecommunication and mobile telecommunication based on the ITU database, classifies the Fixed-mobile Substitution (FMS) degree of the countries worldwide into eight clusters using Cluster Analysis method, summarizes five stages of FMS, and finally comprehensively estimates the overall FMS degree of the countries worldwide or in each continent. It is found that global FMS is severe and will be accelerating in the next three to five years, large difference exists for FMS stage of the countries worldwide, although in the same continent. Most developed countries worldwide have basically crossed over the peak stage of FMS, and most developing countries and underdeveloped countries in Asia, Africa and America which have an advantage on population are still in the middle stage of FMS, therefore, the future FMS will be mainly centered on these areas.