Composite system reliability assessment using a Monte Carlo approach

The authors describe some of the basic modeling concepts of a computer program developed for composite generation and transmission system reliability assessment. The program names MECORE is based on a hybrid approach of Monte-Carlo simulation and an enumeration technique. Novel characteristics of the MECORE program are that multi-derated-states of generating units can be considered, effects of regional weather differences can be recognized, impacts of bus load uncertainty and correlation can be simulated and practical load curtailment philosophies are incorporated in the linear programming minimization model used to evaluate a system state in order to obtain realistic bus indices. Calculation results for two test systems (the IEEE Reliability Test System and a small test system developed at the University of Saskatchewan) and relative analyses associated with considering derated states of generating units, regional weather effects and impacts of bus load uncertainty and correlation are presented