Clock rate versus IPC: the end of the road for conventional microarchitectures

The doubling microprocessor performance every three years has been the result of two factors: more transistors per chip and superlinear scaling of the processor dock with technology generation. Our results show that, due to both diminishing improvements in clock rates and poor wire scaling as semiconductor devices shrink, the achievable performance growth of conventional microarchitectures will slow substantially. In this paper, we describe technology-driven models for wire capacitance wire delay, and microarchitectural component delay. Using the results of these models, we measure the simulated performance-estimating both clock rate and IPC-of an aggressive out-of-order microarchitecture as it is scaled from a 250 nm technology to a 35 nm technology. We perform this analysis for three clock scaling targets and two microarchitecture scaling strategies: pipeline scaling and capacity scaling. We find that no scaling strategy permits annual performance improvements of better than 12.5% which is far worse than the annual 50-60% to which we have grown accustomed.