Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting Coal Price

Author

Ding Zhihua ; Zhao Chao ; Zhou Meihua

Author_Institution

Sch. of Manage., China Univ. of Min. & Technol., Xuzhou, China

fYear

2010

fDate

24-26 Aug. 2010

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

4

Abstract

A verification model of coal price (VEC) is established by using cointegration analysis method in this article, and an empirical study is carried on the corresponding statistics from the year 1985 to 2008. It shows that the main factors affecting coal prices are the output value of industry, GNP, retail price index, coal cost and coal supply. Considering the factors, the proposed verification model can predict the actual value of coal price with high forecast accuracy and explain the changes in coal prices, at the same time, the comprehensive short and long term relationship of these variables and coal prices is better than that of the long-term relationship. The model illustrates the factors´ affection on the impact of coal price based on quantitative analysis, which will offer certain references for macro-control department and coal enterprises.

Keywords

coal; economic forecasting; economic indicators; mining industry; pricing; GNP; coal cost; coal enterprises; coal price; coal supply; cointegration analysis method; comprehensive short term relationship; forecast accuracy; long term relationship; macro-control department; output value of industry; quantitative analysis; retail price index; verification model; Biological system modeling; Economic indicators; Electricity; Equations; Indexes; Industries;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Management and Service Science (MASS), 2010 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Wuhan

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-5325-2

Electronic_ISBN

978-1-4244-5326-9

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICMSS.2010.5578239

Filename

5578239