Title :
Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting Coal Price
Author :
Ding Zhihua ; Zhao Chao ; Zhou Meihua
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Manage., China Univ. of Min. & Technol., Xuzhou, China
Abstract :
A verification model of coal price (VEC) is established by using cointegration analysis method in this article, and an empirical study is carried on the corresponding statistics from the year 1985 to 2008. It shows that the main factors affecting coal prices are the output value of industry, GNP, retail price index, coal cost and coal supply. Considering the factors, the proposed verification model can predict the actual value of coal price with high forecast accuracy and explain the changes in coal prices, at the same time, the comprehensive short and long term relationship of these variables and coal prices is better than that of the long-term relationship. The model illustrates the factors´ affection on the impact of coal price based on quantitative analysis, which will offer certain references for macro-control department and coal enterprises.
Keywords :
coal; economic forecasting; economic indicators; mining industry; pricing; GNP; coal cost; coal enterprises; coal price; coal supply; cointegration analysis method; comprehensive short term relationship; forecast accuracy; long term relationship; macro-control department; output value of industry; quantitative analysis; retail price index; verification model; Biological system modeling; Economic indicators; Electricity; Equations; Indexes; Industries;
Conference_Titel :
Management and Service Science (MASS), 2010 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Wuhan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5325-2
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5326-9
DOI :
10.1109/ICMSS.2010.5578239
