A Grey Verhulst Forecasting Model for the Diffusion of ISO9000 Standard in Guangxi Province in China

ISO9000 certification has become a worldwide phenomenon, spreading across all countries and regions of the world. It is an innovation in nature for the organizations to introduce and implement ISO9000 standard, and diffusion path of ISO9000 standard can be described with S type curve. In the paper, we establish a grey Verhulst forecasting model of ISO9000 certification in Guangxi by using the data of Guangxi´s ISO9000 certification during 2001-2006. The results of model accuracy checking show that the grey Verhust model is excellence and can serves as a tool to forecast the diffusion trend of ISO9000 certification in Guangxi. By applying the grey Verhulst model, we find that the diffusion of Guangxi´s ISO9000 certification will approach saturation point at year 2014 if no other measures are taken.