A human error probability quantification method based on CREAM+Bayes

A new method to quantify human error probability (HEP) is proposed. Firstly, the general data are analyzed. The problems are pointed out when using the general data directly to quantify HEP. It is emphasized that the general data must be adjusted before being used in HEP quantification Secondly, the idea of CREAM basic method is introduced, and the process of its HEP quantification is shown. By analysis, it is leaned that CREAM method can bridge the gap between the general HEP data and the specific scenario. Therefore, results of CREAM basic method can be used as the general data reasonably in quantifying HEP. Lastly, the Bayesian method is introduced to synthesize the general data and the field ones and the new method named CREAM+Bayes is constructed. An example is presented, which shows its improvement in quantifying HEP and proves its validity.