Research on predicting agricultural drought based on fuzzy set and R/S analysis model

This paper uses fuzzy clustering iteration method to cluster the data of many years rainfall, and then considers sensitiveness coefficient as the foundation of calculating weight, which affects the crop output by valid rainfall in each growth stage. On this base, by means of the principle and method of R/S analysis, this paper establishes the predicting model to research on time series data mining of rainfall, then predicting the years of occurrence of agricultural drought. The result of application in Puyang irrigation area which is in Henan Province shows that the model is convenient and current, and is authentically feasible in the application of forecasting the years of occurrence of agricultural drought, which makes a guidance effect in agricultural production.