The risk analysis for infectious disease outbreaks in flood disaster based on spatial information technologies

The waterborne infectious disease caused catastrophic flooding is a major problem which leads to loss of life and economy. The spatial analysis of the disease outbreaks risk will help to respond and mitigate to this problem rapidly. In this study, we use the spatial information technologies and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model to evaluate the risk of diarrheal disease in Ayutthaya province during the 2011 Thailand flood disaster. Six Radarsat-2 scenes are applied to determine flood parameters including flood area and flood duration. Combining with flood parameters, water quality sampling or coliform group count collected during flood disaster are used as the inputs in QMRA model in order to simulate the risk of waterborne diarrheal outbreaks. Compared with the weekly reported diarrhea cases, we found that the intense relationship between the rate of diarrhea patients and flood parameters can lead to evaluate the risk of the diarrhea outbreaks.