Effect of wind-based DG seasonality and uncertainty on distribution system losses

Typically the planning problem formulation of the distribution system integrated with wind-based DGs only considers the peak load and treats the wind-based DG as a constant power supply with a rating based on its capacity factor. However, in reality there are more factors that vary continuously and cause the system losses to vary accordingly. Two of these analyzed parameters which significantly affect the output of wind-based DGs are: wind speed profile variations and load profile variations. Therefore, in this paper a new practical study will be conducted to calculate the actual energy losses in a distribution system with embedded wind-based DGs. Two proposed scenarios will be proposed; the first one will be based on the estimation of the wind speed profile utilizing a proper probability density function (pdf), while the load will be assumed to be constant at its estimated average value. In the second scenario a more accurate method will be used to calculate the energy losses in the system. This method will utilize the actual time based wind and load data. These scenarios will be applied to a typical distribution system with wind-based DGs already located in predetermined locations.