Development of a new system vulnerability index — The overload risk index

This paper proposes a new index to better determine the vulnerability of a power system. The procedure for calculating this index combines stochastic and probabilistic methods to determine the likelihood of a line overloading in a power system. The methods used include a basic load flow analysis using network security factors and Monte Carlo simulation that incorporates the likelihood of component failure within the system. A case study has been performed to analyze the ability of such an index in accurately measuring one aspect of power system vulnerability. Three different variations of this indexing method are explored in an attempt to define an accurate and descriptive measure for this index.