Risk Bayesian assessment approach to HOF-based ship operation in harbour

Marine accidents were mostly caused by the human errors, and it is important to emphasize the research about the human elements for the safety of ships. Risks based on human organization factor (HOF) associated with the vessel operation system at sea are analyzed according to the elements in this system and a new method of proposed risk assessment(PRA) is developed to ensure safe ship operation including the framework, content and procedure. Based on Bayesian method, Bayesian estimation, learning, reasoning and decision-making are established for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the vessel operation system at sea. After the analysis on occurrence probability of accidents related to ship pilots in harbour, a thorough procedure about proposed risk assessment on the basis of Bayesian method is developed to obtain the QRA of their relative distributions. The distributions of ship operation are described and results are presented on QRA in relation to various features. This method, verified in the cases of QRA, turns out to be feasible in the application of risk assessment.