Technology assessment in support of the presidential vision for space exploration

This paper discusses the process and results of technology assessment in support of the United States vision for space exploration of the Moon, Mars and beyond. The paper begins by reviewing the presidential vision: a major endeavor in building systems of systems. It discusses why we wish to return to the Moon, and the exploration architecture for getting there safely, sustaining a presence, and safely returning. Next, a methodology for optimal technology investment is proposed with discussion of inputs including a capability hierarchy, mission importance weightings, available resource profiles as a function of time, likelihoods of development success, and an objective function. A temporal optimization formulation is offered, and the investment recommendations presented along with sensitivity analyses. Key questions addressed are sensitivity of budget allocations to cost uncertainties, reduction in available budget levels, and shifting funding within constraints imposed by mission timeline