Trade remedy effect of US antidumping measures on China;s agricultural products: From the perspective of the third market

Trade remedy measures such as antidumping are generally believed to provide effective protection for the plaintiff. However, the protection may be much lower than plaintiff´s expectation, if considering the third market effect. In our paper, we analyzed the trade deflection effect of US antidumping measures to China´s agricultural product from the perspective of the third market, using the dynamic panel data models. The results showed that the anti-dumping measure by the US on China´s agricultural products has diverted the trade flow of China´s agricultural exports to the third markets, partly taking up the room of US export to the same market, leaving the protection effect in fact falling down on the expectation of the country of plaintiff. The conclusion of the paper has provided a trade remedy effect analysis of Sino-US trade from a new perspective, and provided useful policy reference for future bilateral and multi-lateral trade negotiations.