The influence of costs of fossil fuels and nuclear option on the future spanish generation system

A stochastic linear model have been developed to analyze the Generation Expansion Planning in 2013-2032, through the programming language specific to the application GAMS. In this model the nuclear technology has been considered as generation option in several scenarios of costs of the fossil fuels. Also, two of clean coal technologies have been taken into account. The evolution of supply security has been assessed by means the determination of the vulnerability and degree of independence of the generator system with respect to primary energy sources. On the other hand, the determination of the reserve margin and the percentage of the capacity with regulation capability have allowed to analyze the evolution of its reliability. Lastly, the generation mix of smaller total cost and with less emissions of CO₂ has also been determined. The final conclusion would be that a generator system should have the biggest possible number of types of generation.