Preliminary results for a robust trajectory prediction method using advanced flight data

The need to assist controllers with automation tools to enable them to continue to provide safe and efficient services in increasingly congested skies, has long been recognised. A variety of automated decision support tools (DSTs), both ground-based and airborne, are continuously being designed and improved. The central component of many DSTs is the ability to correctly forecast aircraft trajectories, i.e. "trajectory prediction" (TP). In the future Communications Navigation Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM), DSTs will be required to provide conflict-free trajectories and their associated error margins. This paper presents the initial results from a 4-dimensional TP model under development at the Centre for Transport Studies at Imperial College London. This TP development is a vital part of an extensive project currently underway at Imperial College London to develop a robust Conflict Detection and Conflict Resolution (CD&CR) tool for use in autonomous airspace. Preliminary results of a validation scheme based on a detailed operational dataset collected during real flight trials in European airspace are presented. Furthermore, methods to improve TP modelling accuracy are proposed.