Architecting space exploration campaigns: a decision-analytic approach

Under its vision for space exploration, NASA is moving from designing single space missions to architecting whole exploration campaigns. In comparing campaign options, assessing the value of flexibility to respond to future discoveries and adapt to uncertainties is critical. This paper shows the benefits of decision analysis techniques for campaign design and evaluation. Important concepts of decision analysis are reviewed through the lens of designing a campaign to find exploitable equatorial water on Mars. However, the method developed herein is general to any search campaign. The paper concludes with a discussion of the challenges and opportunities in applying similar techniques to other types of campaigns