Calculating and predicting mission and fleet readiness [tactical aircraft]

The objective is to provide greater insight into the mission readiness of aircraft to support the commander in which aircraft to commit to a mission and estimate how the fleet will perform given their current state and the effectiveness of the maintenance process. In order to more accurately determine the status of aircraft systems following the completion of maintenance operations, statistical inference procedures can be utilized to provide additional insight toward fleet capability and enhance mission optimization. The model supports scheduling of maintenance based on the predicted effectiveness of a repair, including consideration of prognostic and reliability information. A derivation for the probability of no failures in a given operation time is presented that can used to estimate lifetime projections and select aircraft that are the most mission capable or reliable. In addition, the inference procedures and corresponding process model also provide feedback into the overall maintenance process.