Reasoning about complementary intrusion evidence

This paper presents techniques to integrate and reason about complementary intrusion evidence such as alerts generated by intrusion detection systems (IDSs) and reports by system monitoring or vulnerability scanning tools. To facilitate the modeling of intrusion evidence, this paper classifies intrusion evidence into either event-based evidence or state-based evidence. Event-based evidence refers to observations (or detections) of intrusive actions (e.g., IDS alerts), while state-based evidence refers to observations of the effects of intrusions on system states. Based on the interdependency between event-based and state-based evidence, this paper develops techniques to automatically integrate complementary evidence into Bayesian networks, and reason about uncertain or unknown intrusion evidence based on verified evidence. The experimental results in this paper demonstrate the potential of the proposed techniques. In particular, additional observations by system monitoring or vulnerability scanning tools can potentially reduce the false alert rate and increase the confidence in alerts corresponding to successful attacks.