Predicting resource demand in heterogeneous active networks

Recent research, such as the active virtual network management prediction (AVNMP) system, aims to use simulation models running ahead of real time to predict resource demand among network nodes. If accurate, such predictions can be used to allocate network capacity and to estimate quality of service. Future deployment of active-network technology promises to complicate prediction algorithms because each "active" message can convey its own processing logic, which introduces variable demand for processor (CPU) cycles. This paper describes a means to augment AVNMP, which predicts message load among active-network nodes, with adaptive models that can predict the CPU time required for each "active" message at any active network node. Typical CPU models cannot adapt to heterogeneity among nodes. This paper shows improvement in AVNMP performance when adaptive CPU models replace more traditional non-adaptive CPU models. Incorporating adaptive CPU models can enable AVNMP to predict active-network resource usage farther into the future, and lowers prediction overhead.