DocumentCode
2285846
Title
On methods of decision-making under interval probabilities
Author
He, Da-Yi ; Zhou, Rong-Xi
Author_Institution
Sch. of Humanities & Econ. Manage., China Univ. of Geosci., Beijing, China
fYear
2009
fDate
14-16 Sept. 2009
Firstpage
277
Lastpage
282
Abstract
Decision-making problems are generally classified into three types traditionally: certain one, uncertain one and risky one according to the decision-makers´ information of states which they are facing. However there are some decision-making problems lying out of the classification scheme. Interval probabilities were presented to describe these situations and were developed to be a general theory to describe uncertainties and completeness in decision-makings. And to convert interval probabilities to point probabilities is generally accepted way to solve decision makings under interval probabilities. Our focus is mainly on how to convert interval probabilities to point probabilities. Three methods, computer simulation method, linear analytical method and maximum entropy method are put forward to convert interval probabilities to point probabilities, which make decision-makings under interval probabilities can be solved by the classical EMV principle. And their advantages and disadvantages are discussed by the end.
Keywords
decision making; digital simulation; entropy; probability; computer simulation method; decision-making methods; decision-making problems; interval probabilities; linear analytical method; maximum entropy method; point probabilities; Computer simulation; Conference management; Decision making; Engineering management; Entropy; Geology; Helium; Probability distribution; Technology management; Uncertainty; computer simulation; decision-making; interval probabilities; linear analytical method; maximum entropy principle;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Management Science and Engineering, 2009. ICMSE 2009. International Conference on
Conference_Location
Moscow
Print_ISBN
978-1-4244-3970-6
Electronic_ISBN
978-1-4244-3971-3
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/ICMSE.2009.5317458
Filename
5317458
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