• DocumentCode
    2285846
  • Title

    On methods of decision-making under interval probabilities

  • Author

    He, Da-Yi ; Zhou, Rong-Xi

  • Author_Institution
    Sch. of Humanities & Econ. Manage., China Univ. of Geosci., Beijing, China
  • fYear
    2009
  • fDate
    14-16 Sept. 2009
  • Firstpage
    277
  • Lastpage
    282
  • Abstract
    Decision-making problems are generally classified into three types traditionally: certain one, uncertain one and risky one according to the decision-makers´ information of states which they are facing. However there are some decision-making problems lying out of the classification scheme. Interval probabilities were presented to describe these situations and were developed to be a general theory to describe uncertainties and completeness in decision-makings. And to convert interval probabilities to point probabilities is generally accepted way to solve decision makings under interval probabilities. Our focus is mainly on how to convert interval probabilities to point probabilities. Three methods, computer simulation method, linear analytical method and maximum entropy method are put forward to convert interval probabilities to point probabilities, which make decision-makings under interval probabilities can be solved by the classical EMV principle. And their advantages and disadvantages are discussed by the end.
  • Keywords
    decision making; digital simulation; entropy; probability; computer simulation method; decision-making methods; decision-making problems; interval probabilities; linear analytical method; maximum entropy method; point probabilities; Computer simulation; Conference management; Decision making; Engineering management; Entropy; Geology; Helium; Probability distribution; Technology management; Uncertainty; computer simulation; decision-making; interval probabilities; linear analytical method; maximum entropy principle;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Management Science and Engineering, 2009. ICMSE 2009. International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Moscow
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4244-3970-6
  • Electronic_ISBN
    978-1-4244-3971-3
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/ICMSE.2009.5317458
  • Filename
    5317458