Title :
Measurement of forest fire risk based on VaR
Author :
Wang, Zhong-Wei ; Pang, Yan
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Logistics, Central-South Univ. of Forestry & Technol., Changsha, China
Abstract :
Forest fire is the most important risk to the preservation of forest resources. In order to put forest fire under control, it is very important to forecast the forest fire risk. This paper aims at the risk measurement of forest fire. Based on the definition of forest fire risk, the common methods for measuring forest fire risk are reviewed and compared in the paper. It is pointed out that the disadvantages of methods used to measure forest fire risk lie in their monotous index and the ignorance of decision-makers´ attitudes. In order to improve measurement of forest fire risk, the method of VaR is fully discussed. And the utility-based measuring method for forest fire risk is suggested in the paper.
Keywords :
decision making; fires; forecasting theory; forestry; risk analysis; utility theory; VaR; decision-makers attitude; forest fire risk measurement; forest resource; risk analysis; risk forecasting; utility-based measuring method; value-at-risk; Conference management; Engineering management; Environmental economics; Fires; Frequency measurement; Loss measurement; Reactive power; Risk analysis; Risk management; Technology management; VaR; forest fire risk; risk measurement; utility function;
Conference_Titel :
Management Science and Engineering, 2009. ICMSE 2009. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Moscow
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-3970-6
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-3971-3
DOI :
10.1109/ICMSE.2009.5317475
