Title :
What happens when trend-followers and contrarians interplay in stock market
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Autom. Sci. & Technol., Xian Jiaotong Univ., Xian, China
Abstract :
We analyze some basic properties of the stock price dynamical model when trend-followers and contrarians interplay with each other. We prove that the price dynamical model has an infinite number of equilibriums, but all these equilibriums are unstable. We demonstrate the short-term predictability of the price volatility and derive the detailed formulas of the Lyapunov exponent as functions of the model parameters. We show that although the price is chaotic, the volatility converges to some constant very quickly at the rate of the Lyapunov exponent. We extract the formula relating the converged volatility to the model parameters based on Monte-Carlo simulations.
Keywords :
Lyapunov methods; Monte Carlo methods; fuzzy systems; pricing; stock markets; Lyapunov exponent; Monte-Carlo simulations; contrarians; price volatility short-term predictability; stock market; stock price dynamical model; trend-followers; Chaos; Market research; Mathematical model; Monte Carlo methods; Predictive models; Stability analysis; Trajectory; Agent-based models; chaos; equilibrium; fuzzy systems; volatility;
Conference_Titel :
Computational Intelligence in Control and Automation (CICA), 2014 IEEE Symposium on
Conference_Location :
Orlando, FL
DOI :
10.1109/CICA.2014.7013247