An empirical study of the influence of uncertain effects on enterprise entry into science and technology park from the real option perspective

This paper summarizes the uncertainty deriving from the environmental changes of science and technology park. And then referring to the study framework of real option theory, adopting discrete-time logistic model in the event history analysis, relying on the development context of Xi´an National High-Tech Industrial Development Zone and choosing a 17-year-old longitudinal enterprise data from the national torch plan about high-tech industries zone enterprises report database which includes 1,858 observed enterprises, 1,567 enterprises entry events and 28,389 samples, the paper tests influences of uncertain effects on enterprise: (1) the empirical results strongly support the deferring effect of the uncertainty; (2) through empirical data, although the paper supports the negative effects of the uncertainty in investment, an inverted U-shaped relationship between uncertainty and likelihood of entry was found; (3) furthermore, we find the entry decision can be influenced by industry-level and firm-level in the face of uncertainty.