Monitoring and forecasting the dynamic evolution of Beijing wetland from 1978 to 2005

It is very significant for urban development and urban wetland protection and utilization to probe into the process and reasons of urban wetland landscape dynamics. For a long time, the change of wetland landscape pattern has been affected by human activity, and has changed the existing wetland function. In this paper, the capital city of Beijing is for the study of wetland areas, and we used Markov Model to analysis the dynamic change and the trend evolution. Supported by RS and GIS technology, combined the achievements in previous researches and numerous field investigations, we used Landsat-TM images of 1978, 1984, 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2005. The results showed that Beijing wetland recourses degraded significantly, the patches of wetlands tended to be irregular, and the degree of fragmentation was increasing, thus the wetland would be easy to cause regression, and its function was difficult to exert; The transition probability matrices at two primary states were established. Then, the development and the future tendency of wetland landscape patterns were simulated and forecasted with Markov process. In the existing humanity affects, Beijing wetland landscape pattern may achieve a relative stable state. The findings have provided the basis for sustainable development and the scientific management of Beijing wetland.