• DocumentCode
    2302098
  • Title

    Imprecise probability and expert forecasting

  • Author

    Wagner, Carl G.

  • Author_Institution
    Dept. of Math., Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN, USA
  • fYear
    1994
  • fDate
    6-9 Nov 1994
  • Firstpage
    668
  • Lastpage
    671
  • Abstract
    Evidence is often insufficient to support the assessment of precise probabilities. Shifting to vaguer measures of uncertainty, such as upper and lower probabilities, does not deprive one of the key analytical tools of classical probability. Two approaches to the calculation of upper and lower expected values are described and contrasted in the case of forecasting production costs of an electric utility. Conditionalization of imprecise probabilities is also discussed
  • Keywords
    costing; electricity supply industry; expert systems; forecasting theory; probability; uncertainty handling; electric utility; expert forecasting; imprecise probability; lower expected value; lower probability; production costs; uncertainty; upper expected value; upper probability; Binary search trees; Costs; Mathematics; Measurement uncertainty; Power industry; Probability distribution; Production;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Tools with Artificial Intelligence, 1994. Proceedings., Sixth International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    New Orleans, LA
  • Print_ISBN
    0-8186-6785-0
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/TAI.1994.346430
  • Filename
    346430