DocumentCode
2302098
Title
Imprecise probability and expert forecasting
Author
Wagner, Carl G.
Author_Institution
Dept. of Math., Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN, USA
fYear
1994
fDate
6-9 Nov 1994
Firstpage
668
Lastpage
671
Abstract
Evidence is often insufficient to support the assessment of precise probabilities. Shifting to vaguer measures of uncertainty, such as upper and lower probabilities, does not deprive one of the key analytical tools of classical probability. Two approaches to the calculation of upper and lower expected values are described and contrasted in the case of forecasting production costs of an electric utility. Conditionalization of imprecise probabilities is also discussed
Keywords
costing; electricity supply industry; expert systems; forecasting theory; probability; uncertainty handling; electric utility; expert forecasting; imprecise probability; lower expected value; lower probability; production costs; uncertainty; upper expected value; upper probability; Binary search trees; Costs; Mathematics; Measurement uncertainty; Power industry; Probability distribution; Production;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Tools with Artificial Intelligence, 1994. Proceedings., Sixth International Conference on
Conference_Location
New Orleans, LA
Print_ISBN
0-8186-6785-0
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/TAI.1994.346430
Filename
346430
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