Remaining lifetime modelling for replacement of power transformer populations

The age of the majority of power transformers applied in the western electricity network varies between 25 and 50 years. Depending on the load history and time of operation, replacement on short term is imminent. A technically sound policy concerning the replacement of these assets must be based on knowledge of (i) the life expectancy or reliability of individual components, (ii) how these failure probabilities cumulate to a replacement wave, and (iii) how to manage an expected replacement wave. The population reliability is obtained from individual transformer reliabilities using Arrhenius based modelling of paper insulation degradation. This modelling technique includes measures to cope with inherent uncertainties in available data. Population reliability figures are obtained using an adapted k-out-of-N failure model. The modelling method is applied to existing populations of power transformers in The Netherlands, to evaluate their expected replacement wave.