Title :
The Forecasting of China Natural Gas Consumption Based on Genetic Algorithm
Author :
Rui, Chen ; Jian, Wang ; Li, Wang ; Ningjie, Yu ; Pengyan, Zhang
Author_Institution :
Inst. of Policy & Manage.(IPM), Chinese Acad. of Sci.(CAS), China
Abstract :
Since the natural gas is clean, environmentally friendly and highly effective and its strategic status is increasingly prominent, it is in urgent demand to precisely predict natural gas consumption.In our country, a large number of models to predict natural gas consumption have emerged, but all with unavoidable limitations as any single model. So, a model which can integrate merits of each single model is favored by most scholars. This article puts forward a method, based on genetic algorithms, to determine the weight, which avoids the original limit of the least square method and meets the requirements of model projections through different directions.
Keywords :
energy consumption; forecasting theory; genetic algorithms; least squares approximations; natural gas technology; regression analysis; China natural gas consumption forecasting; genetic algorithm; least square method; model projections; natural gas consumption prediction; Artificial neural networks; Conference management; Demand forecasting; Environmental management; Genetic algorithms; Least squares methods; Natural gas; Predictive models; Research and development management; Time series analysis;
Conference_Titel :
INC, IMS and IDC, 2009. NCM '09. Fifth International Joint Conference on
Conference_Location :
Seoul
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-5209-5
Electronic_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3769-6
DOI :
10.1109/NCM.2009.389
