Title :
Forecasting model for logistics demand scale in Guangdong Province based on Grey System Theory
Author :
Zuo, Wenming ; Fan, Chang ; Huang, Qiuping
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Econ. & Commerce, South China Univ. of Technol., Guangzhou, China
Abstract :
In this paper, firstly logistics demand is introduced and indicator items are discussed. Then forecasting of logistics demand scale is illustrated. And GM(1,1) model is discussed in detail. Based on freight traffic and freight ton-kilometers, a novel forecasting model using Grey System Theory for logistics demand scale in Guangdong Province is proposed. Experiment result shows that relative error of freight traffic forcasting for 2009 is 0.8576% and that of freight ton-kilometers is 0.526%. So this model is efficient for forecasting of logistics demand in local area.
Keywords :
freight handling; grey systems; logistics; Guangdong province; freight ton-kilometers forecasting; freight traffic forecasting; grey system theory; logistics demand scale forecasting model; Biological system modeling; Differential equations; Economics; Forecasting; Logistics; Mathematical model; Predictive models; GM(1,1); Grey System Theory; demand forecasting; logistics demand;
Conference_Titel :
Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM), 2011 8th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Tianjin
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-310-0
DOI :
10.1109/ICSSSM.2011.5959403
