Title :
System forecast using a case-based reasoning methodology
Author :
Rocha, Guilherme Conceição ; Kienitz, Karl Heinz
Author_Institution :
Eng. Dept., Konatus Solucoes Inteligentes Ltda., São José dos Campos, Brazil
Abstract :
This paper describes a case-based reasoning methodology for system forecast. For this purpose, a system condition function is defined, a time series is built and split in different scenarios, and a progression model for each scenario is determined. The forecast model for the last scenario is determined by merging the closest past scenario forecast model and the current scenario progression model.
Keywords :
case-based reasoning; economic forecasting; forecasting theory; time series; case-based reasoning methodology; closest past scenario forecast model; condition function; progression model; system forecast model; time series; Cognition; Indexes; Predictive models; Random variables; Time series analysis; Vectors; Case-Based Reasoning; Computacional Inteligence; Forecast; Time series;
Conference_Titel :
Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC), 2011 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Anchorage, AK
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4577-0652-3
DOI :
10.1109/ICSMC.2011.6083895
