Modeling and analysis of the conflict over the Triple Islands in the Persian Gulf

The sovereignty over the Triple Islands in the Persian Gulf has been a source of conflict between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for more than three decades. The conflict is of great importance due to geopolitical, military, and economic reasons. The two countries strongly have been claiming the ownership of the Islands without any strong interest in negotiations to resolve the conflict. To provide strategic insights, the Persian Gulf´s Triple Islands conflict is modeled and analyzed using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), based on non-cooperative solution concepts (stability definitions). The analysis results indicate that military actions are not likely and eventually the two countries will enter negotiations to resolve the conflict.