The Perturbed Trajectories Prediction Method Based on Wide-Area Measurement System

In this paper, a novel method for perturbed trajectory prediction of post-fault rotor angle is presented based on PMU (phasor measurement unit) measurements and trigonometric function curve fitting technique. A mathematical model about the relationship of post-fault rotor angle and time is derived from a speed-governing system model, which reveals that the perturbed trajectory of the post-fault rotor angle can be expressed by trigonometric functions. By curve fitting technique, a least square method to predict the perturbed trajectory using trigonometric function is proposed. Numerical simulations are conducted on IEEE 9-bus system to test the effectiveness of this method. The proposed method can give more reasonable and more promising prediction results as compared with polynomial curve fitting technique