Title :
Forecasting loads and prices for New England market
Author :
Gaushell, Dennis
Author_Institution :
Consulting for Energy, Sunnyvale, CA, USA
Abstract :
Summary form only given, as follows. Generators, utilities, energy traders and large energy users all share a common need for accurate forecasts of load and price at the major energy markets, in order to maximize profits and minimize risk due to price spikes. Examples of impact of price spikes at ISO-NE are given. This paper provides an overview of current forecasting technologies; techniques for selecting forecast variables; locations of public and private weather sources; and definitions and measurements of average forecast accuracy, directional forecast accuracy, and price spikes. Forecasting results are provided for ISO-NE load and energy clearing price, as well as the New England bilateral market price. Seasonal variations in forecasts are also discussed.
Keywords :
load forecasting; power markets; power system economics; tariffs; New England power market; average forecast accuracy; bilateral market price; directional forecast accuracy; energy clearing price; energy markets; forecast variables selection; forecasting technologies; load forecasting; price spike impacts; prices forecasting; profit maximisation; risk minimisation; weather sources; Current measurement; Economic forecasting; Load forecasting; Technology forecasting; Weather forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting, 2002 IEEE
Conference_Location :
Chicago, IL, USA
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-7518-1
DOI :
10.1109/PESS.2002.1043577
