Emerging probabilistic technology and its application to reliability prediction and risk assessment

This paper presents an overview of the Probabilistic Technology. The approach was demonstrated using the Probabilistic Transient Dynamic Impact Analysis of PA103E2 IM Container. The analysis results of indicate that the PA103E2 IM Container has a lower bound reliability. While there were 20 design variables involved in the analysis, the system reliability is only sensitive to 3 variables including drop height, yield and ultimate strength of the container material. These results also showed that the impact energy of the contents is being absorbed by the contents and therefore has minimal effect on the container (this was also demonstrated by the test). This analysis further indicated that using a material with higher ultimate strength and lower yield may results in an improved system reliability and reduced weight