Prior specification for multi-failure mode weibull reliability models

This paper presents a procedure for the specification of informed prior distributions for a model in which the system reliability is modeled as a set of competing failure modes. Each failure mode is represented by a Weibull time-to-failure distribution model. The procedure allows prior reliability assessments to be specified at the system level, possibly complemented by an assessment of the contributions of each of the failure modes to the unreliability of the system. Numerical examples are provided, which show that the specified reliability and contributions can be accurately reproduced, and which further illustrate the resulting reliability assessments at the failure mode and system level