Innovation forecasting

Summary form only as given. Technological forecasting is premised on a certain orderliness of the innovation process. Myriad studies of technological substitution, diffusion and transfer processes have yielded conceptual models of what matters for successful innovation. Yet most technological forecasts key on limited empirical measures quite divorced from those innovation process models. The authors glean a number of concepts from various innovation models, then present an array of bibliometric measures that offer promise of operationalizing these concepts. Judicious combination of such bibliometrics with other forms of evidence offers an enriched form of technological forecasting that they name “innovation forecasting”. This provides a good means to combine technological trends, mapping of technological interdependencies and competitive intelligence to produce a viable forecast. They illustrate this approach by assessing the prospects for ceramic engine technologies